June نوید می دهد که یک زمان بسیار هیجان انگیز برای بازارهای سرمایه در سال جاری باشد ، زیرا دو بانک مهم در جهان ، ECB و Fed ، جلسات خود را در این هفته و هفته آینده در رابطه با تصمیم گیری در مورد نرخ بهره برگزار می کنند. مسلماً: جلسه بانک مرکزی اروپا به وضوح “بی اهمیت” تر از نشست FED است. از آنجا که بانک مرکزی اروپا درباره تورم هرچه بگوید ، کارشناسان مطمئن هستند که حتی اگر بخواهد ، نمی تواند نرخ بهره را افزایش دهد. بسیاری از کشورهای یورو بدهی زیادی دارند و هنوز سرپا هستند زیرا نرخ بهره صفر است و بدهی باعث هزینه های قابل تحمل بهره می شود. اگر بانک مرکزی اروپا فکر می کرد که افزایش نرخ بهره امکان پذیر است ، قبل از همه گیری کرونا شاهد آن بودیم. اکنون ، در همه گیر یا پس از آن ، شرایط مالی به هیچ وجه بهبود نیافته است. بنابراین مسئله افزایش نرخ بهره یا کاهش خرید اوراق قرضه حتی بیشتر از قبل از Covid-19 است.
در آمریکا اوضاع تا حدودی متفاوت است. در اینجا ، بانک فدرال پیش از کرونا نرخ بهره اصلی را به دو درصد رسانده بود. ما انتظار نداریم که بانک فدرال چهارشنبه آینده نرخ بهره را افزایش دهد. عامل تعیین کننده نحوه نگاه بانک فدرال به آینده خواهد بود. آیا افزایش نرخ بهره و اصطلاحاً “کاهش” – به دلیل کاهش ترازنامه – به دلیل داده های اقتصادی خوب زودتر از حد انتظار انجام می شود؟ اخیراً ، سال 2023 تارگت اصلی برای افزایش نرخ بهره بود ، اما با توجه به بهبود اقتصادی ، به نظر می رسد دیگر چنین چیزی وجود نداشته باشد. این یک موضوع بسیار هیجان انگیز است زیرا اساساً برای بازارهای سهام و ارز مهم است. بدون اغراق می توان گفت که 16.06.2021 می تواند یکی از مهمترین روزهای معاملاتی سال باشد ، زیرا FED از قدرت باورنکردنی برخوردار است و می تواند تنها با چند جمله محرک شدید یا حتی مهمانی در بازارهای سهام باشد.
برای این هفته ، همه نگاه ها به پنجشنبه است ، زمانی که ارقام تورم ایالات متحده و آمار بیکاری هفتگی در کنار نشست بانک مرکزی اروپا منتشر می شود. از دیگر اخبار مهم این هفته گزارش مشاغل JOLTs ایالات متحده ، تصمیم نرخ سود کانادا و گزارش ماهانه اوپک است.
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